Inductive Logic

University of Utah, Department of Philosophy, Fall 2015

Syllabus | Schedule | Professor

Course Schedule

In the schedule below, you'll see that the course is broken into three main sections. The first (yellow) section is devoted to the mathematics of probability theory. Here, we focus on developing a strong working understanding of the basic axioms and rules of probability. The second (blue) section is devoted to the philosophical issues that lie at the foundations of probability and statistics; these issues mostly regard alternative interpretations of the notion of probability. In the third (purple) section, we will examine some of the applications of the probability theory to philosophical issues.

The pace of our course will be determined in part by my evaluation of student progress. Thus, the schedule below should be thought of as tentative and subject to change throughout the term. Make sure you visit this page regularly in order to keep track of the reading and homework assignments. Below, in the right column, I list your assigned reading for the week, then optional, supplementary material, then any homework, review sessions, exams, and the like.

 

Week 1 (Aug 24-28)

Course Introduction, Logic Refresher, From Logic to Probability Theory, Basic Notation

• Hacking, chs. 1-2
• OLI, pp. 86-93 (Module 5)

• McGrew, "From Truth Tables to Joint Probability Distribution" [CANVAS]

- Enroll in our OLI course (instructions)
Week 2 (Aug 31 - Sep 4)

The Mathematics of Probability Theory, σ-Algebras, Events and Propositions, Kolmogorov's Axioms

• Hacking, chs. 3-4
• OLI, pp. 94-99

• Hájek, SEP: "Interpretations of Probability," section 1
• Kolmogorov, "Foundations of the Theory of Probability" [CANVAS]
• Lyon, "Kolmogorov's Axiomatisation and its Discontents" [CANVAS]

- OLI checkpoint 6.1 (all checkpoints must be completed by 5pm on the Saturday of the assigned week)
- Post to online discussion board (all posts must be completed by 9am on Thursday for each week)
Week 3 (Sep 7-11)

Theorems and Basic Rules, Conditional Probability

• Hacking, chs. 5-6
• OLI, pp. 100-106

• Earman and Salmon, "The Confirmation of Scientific Hypotheses," pp. 66-74

- Post to online discussion board
Week 4 (Sep 14-18)

Bayes's Theorem, Bayes's Rule, Introduction to Interpreting Probabilities

• Hacking, ch. 7
• OLI, pp. 107-111

• Earman and Salmon, "The Confirmation of Scientific Hypotheses," pp. 74-77

- OLI checkpoint 6.2
- Post to online discussion board

Week 5 (Sep 21-25)

Interpretations of Probability, Physical versus Epistemic Interpretations

• Hacking, chs. 11-12
• OLI, pp. 112-117

• Hájek, SEP: "Interpretations of Probability," (through section 3.1)
• Bulmer, Principles of Statistics, chs. 1-2 [CANVAS]

- OLI checkpoint 7.1
- Post to online discussion board

Week 6 (Sep 28 - Oct 2)

NO CLASS ON THURSDAY

Credences and Probabilities, Dutch Book Argument 1

• Hacking, chs. 13-14
• OLI, pp. 118-123

• Vineberg, SEP: "Dutch Book Arguments"

- OLI checkpoint 7.2
- Post to online discussion board

Week 7 (Oct 5-9)

Dutch Book Argument 2, Probabilism versus Personalism

• Hacking, ch. 15
• OLI, pp. 124-132

• Earman and Salmon, "The Confirmation of Scientific Hypotheses," pp. 81-84

- Post to online discussion board
Week 8 (Oct 12-16)

NO CLASSES THIS WEEK (Fall Break)

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Week 9 (Oct 19-23)

TEST WEEK

REVIEW SESSION: Tuesday, Oct 20, regular class time
MIDTERM EXAM: Thursday, Oct 22, regular class time
Week 10 (Oct 26-30)

The Subjective-Objective Spectrum, Regularity, Principle of Conditionalization

• OLI, pp. 133-137

- OLI checkpoint 8.1
Week 11 (Nov 2-6)

Principle of Indifference, Principal Principle, Reflection

OLI LAB ON THURSDAY (attendance optional)

• Eagle, Philosophy of Probability, pp. 284-295 [CANVAS]
• OLI, pp. 138-140

• Earman and Salmon, "The Confirmation of Scientific Hypotheses," pp. 85-89
• Briggs, "Distorted Reflection" [CANVAS]

- OLI checkpoint 8.2
- Post to online discussion board

Week 12 (Nov 9-13)

Frequencies and Probabilities, Stability

• Hacking, ch. 16-17
• OLI, pp. 141-144

• Earman and Salmon, "The Confirmation of Scientific Hypotheses," pp. 77-81
• Hájek, "Fifteen Arguments Against Finite Frequentism" [CANVAS]

- OLI checkpoint 8.3
- Post to online discussion board

Week 13 (Nov 16-20)

Significance Testing and Induction, Power, Confidence and Induction

• Hacking, ch. 18
• OLI, pp. 145-150

• Hacking, ch. 19
• Hájek, "Fifteen Arguments Against Hypothetical Frequentism" [CANVAS]

- Post to online discussion board
Week 14 (Nov 23-27)

NO CLASS ON THURSDAY (Thanksgiving Break)

The Problem of Induction

• Hacking, ch. 20
• OLI, pp. 151-155

• Hume, An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding; section IV, parts 1-2 [CANVAS]
• Vickers, SEP: "The Problem of Induction"

- Post to online discussion board
Week 15 (Nov 30 - Dec 4)

Probability and the Problem of Induction

• Hacking, chs. 21-22
• OLI, pp. 156-159

• Earman and Salmon, "The Confirmation of Scientific Hypotheses," pp. 55-66
• McGrew, "Direct Inference and the Problem of Induction" [CANVAS]

- OLI checkpoint 8.4
- Post to online discussion board

Week 16 (Dec 7-11)

TEST WEEK

REVIEW SESSION: Tuesday, Dec 8, regular class time
CUMULATIVE FINAL EXAM: Thursday, Dec 10, regular class time